Yanukovych would win second round if held today


Interfax-Ukraine, 15 Dec 09
Fifty percent of voters are ready to support presidential candidate and Regions Party leader Victor Yanukovych in the run-off of the presidential election in Ukraine, according to a survey entitled “The Electoral Expectations of Ukrainian Citizens.”

Director of the Social Perspective Center for Public and Information technologies Ihor Burov presented the results of the survey at the Interfax-Ukraine news agency on Dec. 16.

According to the survey, Yanukovych could hope for support from 50.3% of respondents, while only 38.2% are ready to vote for his nearest opponent, Prime Minister Yulia Tymoshenko.

Among those who are ready to go to the polls on Jan. 17, some 31.5% of Ukrainians are planning to vote for Yanukovych, 20.3% for Tymoshenko, 6.3% for Strong Ukraine leader Sergey Tigipko, 5.9% for Front for Change leader Arseniy Yatseniuk, 5.3% for Parliament Speaker Volodymyr Lytvyn, 4.2% for Communist Party leader Petro Symonenko, and 3.2% for incumbent President Viktor Yuschenko.

Some 6.1% of respondents are planning to vote against all presidential candidates, and 9.3% of those who will definitely vote were undecided.

Commenting on the possible voter turnout in the first round, Burov said: “There will be over a half [of voters], but no more than 60%.”

The survey was conducted in all regions of Ukraine, Crimea and in the cities of Kyiv and Sevastopol on December 1-10, 2009. A total of 2,100 respondents participated in the survey. The poll’s margin of error does not exceed 2.3%.

The election of the Ukrainian president is scheduled for Jan. 17, 2010.

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About DAVID R. MARPLES

Distinguished University Professor, University of Alberta

One comment

  1. Ukraine could have achieved the same result with a single round preferential ballot at half the cost of the two round first-past-the-post voting system

    A preferential ballot where all candidates are ranked in order of preference provides much mo0re information about voters intentions. It is kin to comparing an x ray to a CAT scan with preferential ballot more like a CAT scan making it the ideal election analytical tool

    Having said that the analysis of all the polls with just over 3 seeks to go indicate a clear win for Yanukovych in a run-off ballot with Yulia Tymoshenko.

    The nearest third placed competitor is 10 percentage points behind Tymoshenko. Combined Tymoshenko and Yanukovch represent 50% to 55% of the electorate and an estimated 15% to 20% will not vote.

    Our Ukraine has four candidates nominated for election, each one competing against the other for their share of the same slice of cheese. Combined they represent 12%-15%

    Tigipko has anywhere between 4-7% and Simonenko 3-5%

    Under Ukraine’s two round first past the post voting system on the two highest polling candidates will progress to the second ballot. As indiczated Yanukovych is in poll opsoitgioon and Tymosehnko the only 0ther competitor that can survive the first round. Yushchenko who is on 4-5% will not survive the ballot.

    Tymoshenko will not collect 100% of Yushchenko and Yatseniuks vote. At best maybe 70% Yanukovych can expect to collect from then an additional 5%, He will also collect the lions share of Tigipko’s vote adding a further 5% to his tally. Yanukovych can expect a total of 45% which when multiplied by the participation rate should give him around 50-53% and a win.

    Game over

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