UKRAINIANS SHUN NATO, SUPPORT TIES WITH RUSSIA


By David Marples

In what was termed the Orange Revolution of late 2004, protests in the streets of Kyiv forced a rerun of the second round of the presidential election in Ukraine, resulting in the victory of Viktor Yushchenko over his rival Viktor Yanukovych, who was backed by former president Leonid Kuchma and Russian president Vladimir Putin. Both at the time and subsequently, the outcome was perceived as a victory for pro-Western forces in Ukraine over a ruling group that hitherto was oriented toward Russia.

In similar fashion, the parliamentary elections of 2006 also saw a narrow victory for the Orange forces (which later split catastrophically) over the Regions Party led by Viktor Yanukovych. However, two opinion polls that have been conducted in recent weeks suggest that Ukrainian residents are hesitant about deepening ties with the West and opposed especially to NATO, and a substantial number would rather have some form of union with neighbors Russia and Belarus than join the EU.

On 24 July, Interfax Ukraine cited the results of the most recent survey conducted by the Yaremenko Ukrainian Institute of Social Research and the “Social Monitoring” Center between 10 and 18 July. It is based on 2,014 respondents over the age of 18, residing in 132 cities and villages in all regions of Ukraine, and has a margin of error of 1.34-2.24%.

Less than 20% of respondents are in support of Ukraine joining NATO, with 57% opposed, a figure that would seem to preclude any immediate prospects of a referendum on whether to join the military body. About 25% are in favor of joining the EU, whereas 43.4% wish to join a union with Russia and Belarus, and 27% think it better to pursue equal relations with both the EU and Russia. Thus over 70% of those surveyed support some form of close relationship with Russia.

On the status of the Russian language in Ukraine, the attitude is generally benign: 33.5% feel that the existing status of that language should remain as it is currently; 26.4% believe that it should be raised to the status of a state language; 24.7% consider that Russian should be elevated to the second state language in areas where a majority is in favor of this step; and only 11.7% think that Russian should be removed from official communications throughout Ukraine. Thus over 51% support some strengthening of the status of the Russian language in Ukraine.

These results may be compared to those of another poll carried out between 19 June and 2 July by the Ukrainian Sociology Service and Democratic Initiatives Foundation, with 2,000 respondents from all regions and an error margin of under 2.2% and cited by the Kyiv Post. This poll reveals that had the parliamentary elections–scheduled for late September 2007–been held in early July, the East Ukrainian-based Regions Party led by Yanukovych would have won 44% of the vote and gained about 206 seats in the legislature of 450 members. Regions could then have formed a working partnership with the Communist Party and established a majority government. Yushchenko’s Our Ukraine and the Yulia Tymoshenko Bloc would have formed the opposition.

This same poll also revealed the declining faith of residents of Ukraine in democracy (only 44% feel that it is the best state system), whereas a substantial group–one fifth of respondents–believes that Ukraine would be better off with an authoritarian system. On the question of whether order, democracy, freedom, or liberalism was needed, “order” was the preferred commodity, with 93% in support whereas less than 25% opted for liberalism.

The results of these two polls are both disturbing and revealing. On the one hand, they suggest that the progress of Ukraine toward a Western-style and Western-leaning democracy has been consistently exaggerated by some Western sources. On the other hand, they offer a more accurate account of the way Ukrainians really think. A large plurality or even a small majority of residents of Ukraine prefer closer ties with Russia and have some facility in the Russian language. A similarly substantial portion of the population is skeptical about Western influence, democratic structures, and the way the country has been run since the success of the Orange Revolution.

In truth, the Orange Revolution was not about a pro-Western or pro-Russian orientation at all (Putin’s ill-advised interventions notwithstanding). It was about the way the country had been run for the previous decade, with a spate of political murders, corruption, and muzzling of the media by the Kuchma government.

Ukrainians are not pro-Western today partly because the example set by Western democracies in recent times has hardly provided a model to emulate: beginning with NATO’s attack on Serbia in 1999 and culminating with the invasion of Iraq.

And Ukrainians are for the most part pro-Russian because they see Russia as a strong counterforce to the United States and a nation with which they have more in common than with either the new democracies of Eastern Europe or the long-established democracies that no longer seem capable of providing fitting examples to follow.

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About DAVID R. MARPLES

Distinguished University Professor, University of Alberta

5 comments

  1. You are correct to point out that most Ukrainians are not at all keen on NATO, in spite of wishful thinking by some western observers.

    I wrote of similar attitudes to those you quote, in my blog, last November [ at
    http://foreignnotes.blogspot.com/2006/11/some-ops.html ]

    “More than half of Ukraine’s adult population [52%] want the country to adopt a neutral non aligned status, according to a recent opinion poll.

    65% have a negative or very negative attitude towards NATO, and only 23% support Ukraine’s entry in NATO.

    56% consider Ukaine joining NATO would significantly increase state budget expenditures on defence; and nearly one half [44.8%] of those questioned consider joining NATO would lead to a collapse of the military-industrial complex.”

    You are also correct to point out that the Orange Revolution [not really a revolution at all] was not about a pro-Western or pro-Russian orientation, but rather about the way the country had been run. Ukrainian oligarchs supported Yanukovych in 2004 because of the ‘do unto others before they do unto you’ principle – they were very afraid of any change to the status-quo that may have threatened their often dubiously gained business empires. Immediately after the OR, some even temporarily fled the country.

    Two and a half years later things are very different. Ukraine’s oligarchs, in the main, trust the orange president more and more, and now have little to fear from him. Some, e.g. Viktor Pinchuk, and Rinat Akhmetov are becoming increasingly western-orientated. Vitaliy Hayduk was appointed secretary of the National Security and Defence Council for a while. Oligarchic support for specific political figures may alter significantly after the September 30th Verkhovna Rada elections.

    As I mentioned in my blog, it seems a majority of those who expressed an opinion would like to see Ukraine in a neutral non aligned position – pro-Russian or pro-Western according to specific needs and situations.

  2. Online Editor

    You really must define what you mean by pro-western. if you mean pro-Europe then you are wrong. Ukraine is very much supportive of Europe,. If you mean pro USA then you are right.

    The polls have been showing consistently that the political polarization in Ukraine has not changed. one poll showed former parliamentary speaker Lytvyn holding the balance of power.

    Yushchenko has not captured imagination or united Ukraine. His decision to call fresh elections most certainly has nothing to do with democracy East or West but more to do with a power struggle between the office of the president and Ukraine’s democratically elected parliament

    The president’s actions in seeking fresh elections has only made matters worst. The question of legality of presidents decrees remain unanswered with serious doubts as to the motive and outcome.

    A recent published opinion poll recorded over 60% of Ukrainians supporting the impeachment of the president.

    How much weighty you can give to various polls is debatable but all of them are showing more or less the same outcome. with little change reflected in the view of the electorate.

    What Ukraine needs the most is a period of stable government. the main cause for division and instability is caused by the opposition and the president himself and not the parliamentary government.

    Given the extent to which the president has aligned himself with one side of the political divide if the presidents party failed to win government on September 30 then the president will have to consider his further position and resignation. Ukraine may very well face another election in the not too distant future.

    http://ukrainetoday.blogspot.com/label/polls

  3. Idetrorce

    very interesting, but I don’t agree with you
    Idetrorce

  4. Pingback: Ukrainians Shun NATO, Support Ties With Russia « Voices from Russia

  5. Pingback: Ukraine will not be joining NATO any time soon « Kremlinology

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