The Viktors Go to Brussels

March 7, 2013

David Marples and Myroslava Uniat

After the February 25 16th EU-Ukraine summit in Brussels, Ukraine’s chances of signing an Association Agreement later this year in Vilnius appeared as uncertain as they were before the meeting. What is lacking is a single unequivocal statement from President Viktor Yanukovych that he is prepared to meet the EU halfway and agree to the preconditions that have been outlined and reiterated numerous times by various leaders of Brussels. Meanwhile, Ukraine’s relations with the Russian-led Customs Union seem equally as ambivalent, but continue in parallel form in the background.

The Europeans have made it plain that the continuing imprisonment of opposition politicians Yulia Tymoshenko and Yuri Lutsenko is part of the equation. If the EU has compromised, then it may be on the issue of the former. While Brussels-based politicians condemn the escalation of the charges against Ukraine’s former Prime Minister, there is less emphasis today than hitherto that the release of Ms Tymoshenko is an essential prerequisite for the signing of the agreement. Regarding Lutsenko, on the other hand, the situation is simply confusing. Evhen Balitskiy, a deputy from the Regions Party, speaking on Ukraine’s Channel 5 on February 21, stated firmly that the two detained figures would be released only when they had completed their sentences, and that Ukraine would not cave into outside pressure for an early end to their confinement (http://www.unian.net/news/554646-regional-otpuskat-timoshenko-i-lutsenko-ranshe-sroka-nikto-ne-sobiraetsya.html).

Another report of February 23 suggested that Yanukovych was indeed willing to compromise on both cases, but without setting a time frame (http://www.unian.net/news/555201-ukrainskiy-interes-anketa-evrointegratsii-i-ansambl-dlya-igryi-na-trube.html). Lutsenko’s wife expressed her view that the president had paid close attention to issues dealing with her husband and that his detention was a political matter, i.e. that he had been imprisoned for criticizing the government (http://www.pravda.com.ua/news/2013/02/22/6984173 ). Just three days later, a report from the Polish newspaper Gazeta Wyborcza, maintained that after his meeting with the presidents of Poland and Slovakia, Yanukovych had promised to release Lutsenko in order to demonstrate Ukraine’s commitment to joining Europe. But the press service of the Polish president Bronislaw Kororowski would neither deny nor confirm the statement (http://www.pravda.com.ua/news/2013/02/25/6984254/).

Meanwhile EU politicians were expressing optimism both before and after the Brussels summit. European Commission president Jose Manuel Barroso enunciated his vision of Ukraine as future member of the European Union and expressed his faith that Ukraine has a European future. The effort to get an Association Agreement signed in November at the Eastern Partnership summit in Vilnius was endorsed not only by Barroso, but also by President of the European Council Herman Van Rompuy, EU High Representative for Foreign Affairs and Security Policy Catherine Ashton, and European Commissioner for Enlargement and European Neighborhood Policy Stefan Fule. They did add the proviso, however, that Ukraine should resolve the issue of “selective justice” and remove “deficiencies” in the conducting of parliamentary elections (http://zaxid.net/home/showSingleNews.do?kerivnitstvo_yes_hoche_shhob_ukrayina_stala_chlenom_yevrosoyuzu&objectId=1279188).

There was, however, another familiar Ukrainian visitor in the Belgian capital. Prior to the summit, at an evening meeting with Barroso that lasted over an hour, former president Viktor Yushchenko commented that the Tymoshenko case should not hold up proceedings (http://zaxid.net/home/showSingleNews.do?yushhenko_pered_samitom_govoriv_z_barrozu_pro_ukrayinu_i_timoshenko__zmi&objectId=1278974). The future of the Ukrainian state, stated Yushchenko, should not be a hostage of the “Tymoshenko affair.” Whether the Europeans still perceive Yushchenko as a credible authority is a moot point. The former president has rarely missed an opportunity to denounce his former Prime Minister, whose lengthy jail sentence was due in part to his testimony, and he appears content to serve the Regions government in his new role as an informal negotiator.

The delayed visit of Yanukovych to Moscow, on the other hand, finally took place on March 4, following its postponement last December. The main topics on the agenda were cooperation in energy, trade, and the economic sphere, particularly the conditions on which Ukraine might join the Customs Union. In addition Yanukovych returned to an old conundrum of the Kuchma era, namely the notion that there could be a joint Ukrainian-Russian venture to rent out Ukraine’s gas transportation system (http://zaxid.net/home/showSingleNews.do?yanukovich_u_rosiyi_zaproponuye_stvoriti_spilne_pidpriyemstvo__taran&objectId=1279284; http://www.rferl.org/content/putin-yanukovych-moscow/24918397.html ). Russia, however, is insisting that Ukraine recognize the validity of previous agreements, which include not only the unfortunate 2009 deal on gas prices negotiated by Tymoshenko, but also cooperation and progress toward the integration of the Russian and Ukrainian nuclear industries in accordance with the July 12, 2012 memorandum signed in Yalta. One possible component of this agreement is joint construction of units 3 and 4 of the VVER nuclear power station at Khmelnyts’kyi (http://www.unian.net/news/556804-yanukovich-i-putin-pogovoryat-o-gaze.html ).

 In April 2011 Yanukovych suggested that Ukraine might join the Customs Union in a 3+1 format precluding its full integration. That notion received qualifiede support from Regions deputy and Deputy Prime Minister Serhiy Tihipko, a former chair of the National Bank of Ukraine. Tihipko observed that Ukraine’s entry into the Customs Union has been under negotiation since 2010 and that the proposed treaty details are about 1,000 pages in length. Good progress has been made in his view. But neither side has started to work seriously on the 3+1 idea, an approach that he would not reject. Still, the EU market is seven times larger, which renders it more interesting for the Ukrainian economy (http://www.pravda.com.ua/news/2013/02/22/6984174 ). Implicitly therefore the Customs Union is a viable back-up plan should negotiations with Brussels result in failure.

 If, as seems plausible, Yanukovych is using talks with Russia to persuade Brussels to void the various conditions for signing the Associaton Agreement, he is demonstrating remarkable political naivety. The outcome could be the failure of the November meeting with the EU and equally unfruitful negotiations with Russia, which has considerable sway over the immediate future of Ukrainian energy policy in several of its major spheres, but especially oil, gas, and nuclear power. Andrew Wilson of the European Council of Foreign Relations commented that if the president was a wise man, then he would at least agree to release Lutsenko, but [he] «is not wise» (http://zaxid.net/home/showSingleNews.do?yes_pidpisav_bi_ugodu_pro_asotsiatsiyu_navit_z_timoshenko_v_tyurmi__ekspert&objectId=1278880 ). Valery Chaliy of the Kyiv-based Razumkov Center maintains that the chances of the Association Agreement being signed are no better than 20%. And Swedish Foreign Minister Carl Bildt declared that «To put it mildly, the current signs of progress in Ukraine are quite limited» (http://zaxid.net/home/showSingleNews.do?imovirnist_pidpisannya_ugodi_pro_asotsiatsiyu_z_yes__20__ekspert&objectId=1278849).

 The EU has no doubt taken into consideration the overwhelming support for Ukraine’s European aspirations in the Ukrainian Parliament and the fact that even the government, despite its vacillations and the lack of firm directions at the level of the presidency, is generally in favor. It should take note, however, that negotiations on the side of Kyiv are not taking place with sincerity or even an evident willingness to compromise. All too often the vindictiveness toward former enemies and fear of retribution at some future date for more conciliatory policies, particularly in dealing with the Tymoshenko and Lutsenko cases, mean that at best, the Europeans will see no more than sluggish and very reluctant steps to comply with even modest requests. As Wilson has noted, however, a failure in November could seriously undermine the very existence of the Eastern Partnership. Ukraine might then have no immediate options other than the Customs Union, either in the so-called 3+1 formation or deeper integration on terms emanating from Moscow.


HAVING THE CAKE AND EATING IT TOO

December 22, 2012

Mykola Riabchuk

On the eve of President Vikto Yanukovych’s visit to Moscow on December 19, many Ukrainian experts were confident that the game was over and the beleaguered Ukrainian president would accept Putin’s invitation to the Customs Union as a sine qua non condition for the much-needed lowering of gas prices. The visit was postponed, however, because the agreement on energy cooperation had not been yet finalized http://www.pravda.com.ua/news/2012/12/21/6980243/.

There are also some unofficial explanations of the canceled event, ranging from Putin’s whim to a miraculous call from Brussels and promise to soften the EU’s stance on the association agreement. The most feasible argument was discussed in detail in Ekonomichna pravda: some Ukrainian oligarchs have raised a new rescue idea, very similar to the old one realized by the unforgettable RosUkrEnergo http://www.epravda.com.ua/publications/2012/12/19/351560/.

Since his accession to power, Viktor Yanukovych has seemed to be musing over the classical question: how to have one’s cake and eat it too? In other words, how can one exploit the economy for the benefit of cronies and kinsmen, yet keep it alive? How to imitate a democracy and retain authoritarian power? How to befriend the West but avoid the burden of incorporating Western values and the rule of law in particular? How to gain concessions from Moscow without conceding one’s own and one’s clan’s sovereignty?

So far, the process of eating has gone much more smoothly than that of keeping the country afloat. Those perusing Ukrainska Pravda or other independent news sites regularly, would find, every day, a whole series of new facts about some government schemes: misuse of funds, tax evasion, dubious purchases at exorbitant prices from murky off-shore intermediaries, raider attacks, scandalous court rulings, and various examples of lawlessness that make up a fabric of Ukrainian social reality. Remarkably, all these facts that would cause scandals in a normal country and lead to dismissal of corrupt officials and a court investigation, evoke typically no official reaction in Ukraine. If something does not exist on TV (fully controlled by the government), it does not exist at all. Actually, only 20 per cent of the population obtains information from the Internet, whereas 80 per cent receives it primarily or exclusively from TV.

The government seems to believe in the virtual TV world it created for the gullible population. Nothing the government did within the past two months signals any desire to change course, tame the appetites of the “Family,” and carry out comprehensive reforms that may be the only way to save the country. Neither the clear popular vote against the incumbents, nor international condemnation of the rigged elections, nor the dire state of the Ukrainian economy and the even bleaker prospects for the future have compelled the president and his team to revise a single item of their impending disastrous policies.

First, the 2013 national budget was rubber-stamped by the parliament in the best traditions of the ruling Party of Regions: without any discussion but with numerous loopholes and tasty morsels for the “Family” insiders and associates.

Secondly, the new parliamentary majority was formed through the familiar pattern of bribery, blackmail, and intimidation of independent MPs. Many of the latter are connected to various businesses, either personally or via close relatives, and are therefore highly vulnerable to government influence. Opposition MPs are also subjected to pressure. So far, only two of them, from Yatseniuk’s party, have switched sides openly, but reports suggest that many more are being “persuaded” by various means to make the “right” choice http://www.pravda.com.ua/articles/2012/12/13/6979494/.

Thirdly, even though the new government has not yet been formed, the approved return of Mykola Azarov to the position of the prime minister does not bode any significant changes to the previous stagnant and corrupt policies. The election of 66-year Volodymyr Rybak, Yanukovych’s close friend from Donetsk, as chairman of the Ukrainian parliament, also confirms the desire to preserve the status quo and keep away any strong figures from top governmental positions that might provide them a good platform in the future to threaten Yanukovych http://www.pravda.com.ua/articles/2012/12/14/6979768/.

And fourthly, the outgoing parliament has rubber-stamped one more document that might pose grim consequences not only for Ukraine but also for Yanukovych himself. This was the law on national referendums that is widely believed to be a vehicle for his re-election for a second or even third term but might also become a tricky instrument in the hands of pro-Moscow forces to undermine the sovereignty of both Yanukovych and Ukraine in general.

The controversial law was passed at the first reading two years ago and seemed to have been forgotten until last November when the de-facto electoral defeat of the Party of Regions buried the “Family’s” hopes of mustering a qualified majority of two-thirds of MPs in the new parliament to amend the constitution at Yanukovych’s convenience, as has occurred in several post-Soviet states to satiate local dictators. Now, the anti-constitutional law on referendums means that the authorities can bypass the last remnants of constitutionalism in Ukraine by transforming the results of any plebiscite directly into law, without the need for parliamentary approval.

The referendum can be initiated either by Verkhovna Rada or the “people.” That latter make take such an initiative is very unlikely, however. Even if the “people” collect the required 3 million signatures to support a proposal, there is no independent judiciary in Ukraine to protect these signatures from being dismissed as “fake” by authorities, as happens on a daily basis in Putin’s Russia http://zakon1.rada.gov.ua/laws/show/1286-12.

It is a ticking bomb that is much more dangerous for Ukrainian democracy and sovereignty than any other of Yanukovych’s initiatives, including joining the ominous Customs Union. So far, all the Moscow-led “integration” projects have brought unimpressive results. All Russia’s neighbors are well aware what that kind of “integration” means. Few of them dare, however, to utter a definite “no” to those tricky initiatives (Georgia might be the very graphic exception). Therefore, they typically say “yes, but…” And that “but” stands for various forms of lip service and sabotage that undermines effectively “integration” projects without a direct and potentially dangerous confrontation with Moscow.

There is no reason to believe that Yanukovych’s “Family” is eager to give up Ukrainian customs to any “union” and deprive themselves of such a powerful source of income. The greed of these people might be the best if not the only guardian of Ukraine’s sovereignty–at least as long as their personal security in Ukraine is not under threat. But their incompetence and provincial naivety can make them (and all the nation, alas) an easy prey of the seasoned KGB hunters. Neither the 2010 “Kharkiv agreements” nor the recent scandal with LNG terminal (when the government signed an agreement with a bogus representative of a Spanish company) give much credibility to the alleged “professionalism” of the ruling team.

In October 2012, a leaked conversation of a Russian “political technologist” Semen Uralov, who worked in Odesa for the leader of the “Rodina” party Igor Markov, referred to the eventual victory of the unambiguously pro-Russian forces in Ukraine supposedly led by Viktor Medvedchuk. They implied also an honorable exile for Mr. Yanukovych in his opulent Mezhyhirya mansion, with a private zoo among other luxury possessions. The interlocutors joked about him being “locked in with his kangaroos”: “Ігор днями зустрічався з ВВМ [Віктором Володимирoвичeм Медведчуком]. Той підтвердив загальну концепцію. Не пізніше 15 року все зміниться, а цього пiдoра заженемо до його кенгуру у Межигір’я, а поки що – збираємо групу у Раді” (http://pr-portal.com.ua/peredovitsa/15895.php?sphrase_id=5446311).

It might be a good time to ponder whether a Putin-sponsored and Medvedchuk-led referendum, with a properly formulated question, would not be a much quicker way to push Ukraine into the Russian orbit than the awkward, barely functioning, and a priori unworkable Customs Union.


2011 in review

January 1, 2012

The WordPress.com stats helper monkeys prepared a 2011 annual report for this blog.

Here’s an excerpt:

The concert hall at the Syndey Opera House holds 2,700 people. This blog was viewed about 27,000 times in 2011. If it were a concert at Sydney Opera House, it would take about 10 sold-out performances for that many people to see it.

Click here to see the complete report.


Back to Kuchmenistan

November 22, 2011

Mykola Riabchuk

On November 17, the Ukrainian parliament adopted a new electoral law for the conducting of the next parliamentary elections in October 2012 http://portal.rada.gov.ua/rada/control/en/publish/article/info_left?art_id=290355&cat_id=105995. So far, its draft is available only in Ukrainian http://w1.c1.rada.gov.ua/pls/zweb_n/webproc4_1?id=&pf3511=41814 . Besides some novelties and modifications, the law essentially reestablishes the mixed system under which half of the deputies are elected through first-past-the-post elections in single-member districts, and half through proportional representation in nationwide multi-member districts. Such a system had been employed in Ukraine until the Orange revolution but was replaced eventually with a purely proportional system of elections from the nationwide party lists.

Back in 2004, the reason for change was two-fold. First, it intended to encourage the development of the party system, promote coalition building in the parliament and in line with amendments to the constitution render the government more dependent on the specific parties and the parties more responsible for the government. The second goal was even of greater importance. The earlier mixed system, especially its “majoritarian” part, employed in Ukraine until 2004, turned out to be highly susceptible to all sorts of manipulation and abuse of power by unscrupulous authorities. The proportional system, instead, was to reduce corruption both in electoral districts where government-connected oligarchs bribed voters, and in the parliament where the “independents” (typically local officials or businessmen) became easy prey for governmental blackmail and bribery.

The 2002 parliamentary elections provide a graphic example of how the majoritarian system benefited the authoritarian government of Leonid Kuchma. Then, despite all the dirty tricks, the pro-presidential parties made up only 20% of votes in the nationwide district, whereas their opponents, Viktor Yushchenko’s and Yulia Tymoshenko’s blocs, won 30%. Yet, the second half of the parliament was made up of the “independents” from single-member districts, so, predictably, most of them succumbed to the multiple arguments provided by the omnipotent presidential administration, and joined the incumbents.

To make bad things worse, the Ukrainian version of the majoritarian system does not require the winner to get 50+ per cent of votes in his/her district. In the first-past-the-post elections reintroduced in Ukraine, victory can be secured by sheer plurality, not necessarily a majority of votes. It means that pro-governmental candidates, however unpopular, can win elections with 20% of votes and less if they manage successfully to split opposition (and votes), produce as many fake competitors as possible, and eliminate the most dangerous rivals by decisions of fully obedient courts subservient to the authorities.

This is exactly what happened in last year’s local elections where the government carried out a dry run of the new-old system. For instance, in the proportional representation part of the election to the Kyiv Regional Council, the Party of Regions got 26 percent of the vote. Yet, in the first-past-the-post contests, almost all of the party’s candidates won. As a result it controls 65.5 percent of the regional council http://www.tol.org/client/article/22303-blocking-out-its-rivals.html.

One may argue, of course, that the first-past-the-post system should not be a big problem for opposition if they manage to unite against the incumbents or at least to agree on a common single candidate in each district. There are two hurdles, however, of both an objective and subjective nature. First, democratic forces are never as consolidated and monolithic as authoritarians who care little for ideological subtleties and principled debates but do care a lot about mafia-style discipline supported by enormous resources, patronage networks, elaborate blackmail, and coercion. And secondly, even if the democrats manage to unite, the authoritarian incumbents are skilful in splitting them, multiplying the bogus alternatives and, in some cases, eliminating the potential or even actual winners by courts under the most ridiculous pretexts.

To further undermine the opposition’s ability to unite, the new electoral law bars electoral blocs from participation in elections. This brings an additional advantage to the authoritarian Party of Regions and delivers, in particular, a serious blow against the political force of Yulia Tymoshenko that is broadly known as her eponymous bloc, while her specific political party “Batkivshchyna” (Fatherland), even though the strongest within the bloc, is largely unknown. The increase of the electoral threshold from 3 to 5 percent also targets the opposition, which, unlike the incumbents, consists of many small parties unable to surpass that total. As a result, all the votes of the opposition parties that fail to reach the threshold will be distributed proportionally among the parties that manage to do it. In other words, the Party of Regions will get a significant share of opposition votes that otherwise would never go to them.

Remarkably, the Party of Regions in opposition was fairly satisfied with the proportional electoral system as well as all other amendments to the constitution http://www.pravda.com.ua/articles/2011/11/17/6760394/. It is not that the system was perfect. Its major flaw was voters’ inability to influence the sequence of candidates on party slates. This made parties akin to closed political clubs where the leaders had too much power and were prone to arrange the electoral party lists in a voluntaristic fashion, evaluating prospective candidates by their financial contribution rather than moral, political, or professional merits. But the problem was not insurmountable, as the experience of many consolidated democracies, e.g. neighboring Poland, graphically demonstrates. To improve the proportional system, both Ukrainian and international experts suggested the so-called “open lists,” which would provide people with an opportunity to vote not only for a specific party but also for the preferred candidate on the party’s list.

Ironically, Viktor Yanukovych himself supported this change during his 2010 presidential campaign but eventually backtracked to his current position of support for a mixed electoral system. The reason for this volte-face was allegedly a lack of support for the “open lists” system in the parliament.However, this argument is as preposterous as the president’s claims that Ukrainian courts are impartial and independent and he has no leverage to influence them. Even more laughable is the assumption that the president has no influence over his own Minister of Justice Oleksandr Lavrynovych, who dares today to ridicule his boss’ project from 2009: “Imposing open lists is a mockery of law, common sense, and citizens. It’s lobbied for by the opposition, while we offer a better mechanism, whereby people choose their own members of parliament” http://www.tol.org/client/article/22303-blocking-out-its-rivals.html.

All those who remember Yanukovych’s U-turn on the issue of Ukraine’s NATO membership (in 2002-2004, when he was Prime-Minister, he had no objections to it), should not be surprised by his latest opportunistic move. Neither the president nor his Party of Regions has ever had any political principles or ideology besides strong commitment to absolute power that can be converted into wealth and, in turn, more secure absolute power. They have no strategy, and all their moves are determined by short-term political-cum-business expediency. In this case, the ultimate goal of the Regionnaires is clear: not to improve the existing electoral law but, rather, to introduce a new law that offers them benefits and disadvantages the opposition.

As early as March 2011, the American experts from the National Democratic Institute and the International Republican Institute suspended their cooperation with the Lavrynovych-led working group created back in 2010 by the president with the stated task to amend the elections law, and make it more coherent, transparent and acceptable for the both government and opposition. The Americans discovered that they were simply manipulated by the Ukrainian authorities, which were intent on legitimizing, with a help of reputable foreigners, their quasi-legalistic machinations.

More recently, the European Commission for Democracy through Law (Venice Commission) and OSCE Office for Democratic Institutions and Human Rights (OSCE/ODIHR) submitted their detailed and rather critical analysis of Lavrynovych’s project, which contained a remarkable passage regarding the card-sharp tactics of the Ukrainian lawmakers: “The electoral system chosen in the draft law is not the one discussed by the Venice Commission representatives during their meetings with the Ukrainian authorities and not the one recommended by the Resolution 1755 (2010) of the Parliamentary Assembly of the Council of Europe” http://www.venice.coe.int/docs/2011/CDL%282011%29059prov-e.pdf.

And finally, the International Foundation of Electoral Systems (IFES) sent an equally strong message to the Ukrainian authorities in its own expert analysis of proposed changes: “IFES notes that the draft law was developed in an atmosphere of considerable uncertainty and mistrust between the Government of Ukraine, political parties and civil society. Numerous concerns regarding the draft law, and the process by which it was created, were raised to IFES by members of opposition parties, civil society, electoral experts and the international community… IFES shares the concerns expressed by many Ukrainian and international stakeholders regarding the government’s decision to change the electoral system in the present political climate. Electoral systems can always be improved for the better, but given the lack of consensus in the country; the significant impact of the proposed changes on the political landscape; and relatively short timeline for implementing these changes, it is highly questionable whether it makes sense to change the system at the present time. While the newly proposed system may be a legitimate one, there is no major flaw in the current system that would require an immediate change without further discussion” http://ifes.org/Content/Publications/Papers/2011/Review-and-Analysis-of-the-Draft-Law-on-the-Election-of-Peoples-Deputies-of-Ukraine.aspx.

Even more surprising is that the new law was approved ultimately by 366 MPs (of 450 in the Ukrainian parliament), i. e., not only by the ruling majority but also a major part of the opposition. It seems that supported the lesser of two evils–-the draft law with some minor concessions for the opposition instead of the genuine, much more discriminatory draft that would have been passed by the Party of Regions anyway. This is probably true since the President and his allies have enough votes in the parliament to pass any decision they need. Yet, the reality is that the Party of Regions can muster a pro-presidential majority in the next parliament with or without the insignificant concessions they have made to their opponents. It is just a matter of a few seats they may not get in elections and a few extra millions they would have to spend eventually in the parliament to buy the needed number of “independents.” But this is quite a reasonable price to pay for the legitimization the new law, both domestically and internationally, with the precious help of the opposition.

Once again, the Ukrainian democrats “shot themselves in the foot,” helping the Regionnaires to dismantle the last achievement of the Orange revolution: the election system that precluded, more or less successfully, large-scale falsifications and vote buying. Now they may lay bets only on whether the Regionnaires can muster a simple majority (226+) in the future parliament or the qualified majority (300+) that would enable them to change the Constitution and, in 2015, to elect the president, with all his enormous powers, by a simple parliamentary vote. My bet is that this is exactly the main goal of Viktor Yanukovych and the major rationale of virtually all his policies to date.


The Tip of the Iceberg

September 25, 2011

Mykola Riabchuk

The farcical trial of Yulia Tymoshenko, the former prime minister and main political rival of incumbent president Viktor Yanukovych, seems predictably to be drawing to a farcical end. The final decision is as yet unclear even for the chief organizers of the court facade. Thus far, they are trying desperately to fulfill two opposite and essentially incompatible demands – to free “Yulia,” at the demand of the international community, and, at the same time, to eliminate her as the most dangerous rival of Yanukovych from the next parliamentary (2012) and presidential (2015) elections.

The government, squeezed by two mutually exclusive imperatives, has a really difficult choice – either to forget about the pending Association Agreement with the EU and probably about the DCFTA (Deep and Comprehensive Free Trade Agreement), or to face harsh political competition from a rival who may not only win the forthcoming elections but also could potentially dispatch all her current persecutors to jail with much more serious and better substantiated criminal accusations. The costs-and-benefits calculation of either decision is incredibly difficult for the incumbent regime – partly because there are too many unknown variables in the calculation, and partly because the regime is not homogenous, and various factions perceive their own costs and benefits differently.

Some “pragmatic” observers argue that Tymoshenko is just a loose cannon and her re-emergence on the political scene would weaken and split the opposition, and effectively prevent the emergence of new and more dangerous anti-oligarchic leaders from civil society that may challenge the entire corrupt system. They refer to some classified opinion polls that predict Yanukovych’s victory over Tymoshenko if an election were held today, but give him slim chances against other candidates like Arseniy Yatseniuk.

Another group of experts and politicians claims, rather cynically, that the EU will sign the agreements with Ukraine anyway because the country is too big and strategically important, and the Westerners would not allow it to be swallowed alternatively by Russia.

And finally, there is a sizable group of people around Yanukovych who have multiple interests in Russia and basically do not care about, and do not believe that any serious international sanctions will be imposed on the regime, regardless of its neo-Soviet roughness and repressiveness.

All these groups press the weak and incompetent leader in different directions but a consensus emerges from this seemingly chaotic chorus that will be examined further in more detail.

Remarkably yet, all the discussions about the Tymoshenko affair pay little if any attention to the factual side of her “crime.” Even pro-government experts and politicians, in various articles, talk-shows and interviews, speculate primarily about the political expediency of the trial, about its costs and benefits for both the government and Tymoshenko herself, but not about the specific decisions, signatures, documents, figures, and agreements she negotiated with her Russian counterpart Vladimir Putin.

It seems that even the government is not especially concerned to make a case that the trial is really a criminal and not a political affair. Hanna Herman, the outspoken advisor of Yanukovych, goes so as far as to suggest that her boss was merely framed by some unspecified conspirators who arrested Yulia Tymoshenko without the president’s blessing: “If [Viktor] Yanukovych had made his own decision on the issue, he would not have carried out such a great injustice. It was done when Yanukovych was on his holidays, when he did not have information… If I only knew who had done this, who made this decision, I would have strangled him with my own hands” http://gazeta.ua/articles/400435.

The issue appears here as a matter domestic intrigue within the ruling clique rather than a genuinely legal case. Yet, an even better portrait of the Ukrainian “justice” system and the legal consciousness of the Ukrainian political “elite” emerges from a recent interview with former Ukrainian president Leonid Kuchma who back in 2001 arrested Yulia Tymoshenko, then a deputy prime minister, because of some murky gas deal from the mid-90s, when she was a major business partner of the notorious Pavlo Lazarenko.

Q. “Don’t you regret that you also happened to imprison Yulia Tymoshenko? Her popularity ratings rocketed after that.”
A. “I never ordered anyone to imprison her, and you know this!”
Q. “Really?”
A. “If I have ordered it, she wouldn’t have been released!” http://www.pravda.com.ua/articles/2011/09/17/6594851/

No comments are necessary.

In the absence of an independent judiciary in Ukraine any decision on a politician’s destiny would be political and, most likely, ascribed to the president’s whim since he has accumulated almost autocratic power in his hands. The “pragmatists” seem to have already persuaded Mr. Yanukovych to release his main nemesis and let her play the role of a political spoiler on the opposition playing field. The EU will be satisfied, the agreements signed, the sanctions avoided, the opposition silenced, and the heavyweight Russian pressure counter-balanced by a traditional “Western vector” and mostly virtual “Euro-Atlantic integration.” The only problem remains how to bring to an end the farcical “Yulia show” in a more or less convincing if not necessarily decent way.

The solution found by the president’s legal pundits and political spin-doctors looks smart. The parliament is reconsidering whether the old Soviet (1962) Criminal Procedure Code is legally valid in Ukraine, which inter alia would eliminate the article that criminalizes Tymoshenko’s alleged wrongdoing. Two birds would be killed thereby with one stone: Tymoshenko would be released without a formal dismissal of accusations (thus she would have a criminal record), and the incumbent regime would receive a perfect cart-blanche for similar wrongdoings in the future. Notably, the Ukrainian parliament controlled by Yanukovych’s Party of Regions has refused to make some critical amendments to the outdated Code that run against their authoritarian views and needs. For example, the MPs refused to forbid legally any pressure on priests to disclose information obtained during confessions. Or to stipulate clearly in the Code that advocates, notaries, doctors and psychologists may not disclose any confidential information received from their clients without their written permission http://maidan.org.ua/2011/09/rada-dozvolyla-dopytuvaty-svyaschenykiv-schodo-spovidi/.

These childish attempts to manipulate the Criminal Code are further proof that the Ukrainian “elite” is still playing with rules rather than by the rules. Yet, as similar cynical games in Moscow are accepted internationally at the highest level, the Ukrainian rulers should not be embarrassed too much.

The main problem with all these post-Soviet crooks is that they not only distrust the so-called “European values” but, in most cases, they simply do not understand them. By and large, they believe that the politics is all the same everywhere and all the discourse about human rights, rule of law, and other “blah-blah” is merely a Western trick, a trump-card invented by a stronger player to gain some advantages over weaker counterparts and force them to make some additional concessions. On many occasions, they refer to various Western missteps and inconsistencies, like Schroeder’s corruption, Berlusconi’s extravagancies, or Bush’s Iraq affair, just to prove that the only difference between “them” and “us” is that they can get away with it.

The ultimate results of the Tymoshenko affair might be two-fold. The first, less likely but still possible, scenario is that the firebrand Yulia is sentenced and thereby eliminated from the eventual elections. In this case, the EU would certainly not sign the nearly finalized agreements with Ukraine – under the clearly articulated pressure of Germany, Italy, France and some other countries that have never had much interest in Ukraine’s democracy, human rights and European integration, but have always highly respected Moscow’s “privileged interests” in what they believe is its “backyard.” None of these friends of Tymoshenko raised their voice last year when the illegitimate government was formed in March after the Regionnaires carried out a coup d’etat in parliament, the constitutional court was reshuffled, local elections illegally postponed and eventually falsified, the 2004 constitutional amendments abolished with multiple procedural violations, and so forth. For those “friends of Ukraine” everything was fine in the country until court proceedings began that encroached upon the interests of Gazprom and Mr. Putin. “It is not just wrong but amoral,” is how Mykola Azarov, prime minister of Ukraine, condemned Westerners’ attempt to connect “the serious global issues like the free trade agreement with a specific court case” http://korrespondent.net/ukraine/politics/1262493-azarov-svyazyvat-podpisanie-soglashenij-ob-associacii-s-es-i-process-nad-timoshenko-amoralno.

This will probably be the predominant rhetoric of the Ukrainian officialdom if Tymoshenko is sentenced and the agreements are not signed. The strong anti-Western campaign and gradual “Belarusization” of Ukrainian politics is the most probable result of this scenario.

More likely, however, is that Tymoshenko will be released, the agreements signed, and the Ukrainian “elite” will have further proof of how smart they are and how easily they can cheat the stupid Westerners. So far, indeed, there are no signs they are going to reconsider their profound contempt for democracy, human rights, and all those trumpeted and really boring “European values.” Tymoshenko’s case is just the tip of the iceberg, but it distracts attention from rampant lawlessness all over the country, including innumerable accounts of police and security service brutality, blackmail and intimidation, harassment of civic activists, the shutdown of the independent mass media, destruction of “disloyal” businesses, and many other misdeeds that have become habitual practices of the Ukrainian authorities.

As long as they are allowed to cheat and not punished for it like their Belarusian brethren, they will cheat wherever and whenever possible –with or without the EU agreements, and regardless of whether Yulia Tymoshenko is at large or in detention.


STASIUK BLOG NOTES, 1/11

September 8, 2011

David Marples

Recent opinion polls suggest that the number of Ukrainian speakers in Ukraine is rising, despite the recent closure of several schools in Makiivka.

According to the Razumkov Center, in the early years of the 21st century, the number of ethnic Ukrainians who spoke Russian was 3% higher than the number of Ukrainian speakers. However, today, 60% of residents of Ukraine consider Ukrainian to be their native language. When translated into the language of everyday usage, 53.3% of the general population speaks Ukrainian, and 44.5% Russian (L’vivs’ka poshta, Aug 25).

These figures are supported by a poll conducted by the Research and Branding Group (RBD) between August 12 and 22, and encompassing just over 2,000 respondents. The poll revealed that at home, 47% spoke Ukrainian, 37% Russian, and 15% spoke both languages. In terms of the language used at school or at work, 45% said Ukrainian, 35% Russian, and 18% both languages. Once again the poll indicates the growing use of Ukrainian, even though the current government has not actively promoted native language usage, and the majority of the current Cabinet is Russian speaking (Ezhenedel’nik, Sept 6).

In 2009, in a similar poll,RBD found that 56% of respondents supported official bilingualism, whereas only 41% considered that Ukrainian should be the sole state language. Today, those figures are more or less equal: 49% back bilingualism and 48% would prefer Ukrainian to be the exclusive language (Ezhenedel’nik, Sept 6). The resurgence of support for the Ukrainian language comes despite the fact that the local government in Makiivka accepted a decision last spring to shut down four Ukrainian schools. As reported by Anatoly Lukashyk, to the consternation of parents the resolution was accepted without any public discussion, and backed up by the district court despite protests of parents. President Viktor Yanukovych noted parents’ concerns but chose not to contest the decision. However, School No. 44 continues to function as a result of the strong stance taken by the parents in support of Ukrainian-language education (L’vivs’ka poshta, Sept 1).

In a related article, Lukashyk also notes that according to the Levada Center, whereas Russians believe that relations with Ukraine are better than in 2007, still 39% perceive them as cold or unfriendly, and only 28% see them as warm and friendly. Russians also have little time for Ukrainian leaders, particularly the leader of the opposition, Yulia Tymoshenko, who is “trusted” by 7% and distrusted by 71%. The respective figures for President Yanukovych are 33% and 50%. A plurality of Russians (40%) approves of the actions taken against Tymoshenko, whereas 25% disapprove; a rather surprising figure considering that the Russian government has also been very critical of her trial (L’vivs’ka poshta, Sept 1).

What can one conclude from these recent polls? They suggest that the role of the government in guiding language usage is at best ephemeral and that the progress of Ukraine toward a Ukrainophone environment continues the path that was inaugurated in the late 1980s, despite a relatively authoritarian and unhelpful regime in Kyiv. It is well known that for the Russians, Viktor Yushchenko as president became unacceptable and relations were virtually severed between the two neighbors by 2010. However, despite early indications, the relationship with President Yanukovych is anything but smooth, and Ukraine continues to build on the cultural foundations initiated two decades ago. Slowly but inexorably the Ukrainian language is taking root.

Stasiuk Blog Notes will appear occasionally throughout the year. The Program acknowledges the assistance of Oleksandr Melnyk, PhD candidate, University of Toronto, in compiling materials.


Ukraine after 20 Years: the Glass is still Half-Empty

August 22, 2011

Mykola Riabchuk

Ukrainian Independence Day is still an event that evokes a flood of articles, memoirs, speeches, and debates in the national mass media, sometimes pathetic and pompous, but in most cases embittered, frustrated and utterly sarcastic.

Oleksandr Irvanets, a renowned Ukrainian writer, very popular inter alia through his ad hoc poetical parodies, produced a sham “ode” with the explicit dedication to the national Independence Day – “Our Victory” [http://www.ut.net.ua/Columns/50/5793]. The bogus ode is composed of poetical clichés borrowed from both the socialist realist and nationalist writing of the “heroic” genre. This combination is pretty funny in itself but the main comic effect comes from the names of “heroes” inserted within the “ode” and from their purported “national-liberation” activity. All the names represent the so-called Ukrainian elite – the top politicians and oligarchs who in fact had never dreamed about any kind of national independence (some of them actually worked within the ancien regime to suppress it) but who, ironically, appear to be the main, if not only, beneficiaries of Ukraine’s independent statehood.

Lina Kostenko, another prominent Ukrainian writer, published a scornful feuilleton “Dress Ranks to the Podium!” in which she mockingly suggested substituting the traditional military parade with a carnival procession of all the corrupt officials, judges, and other government folk who have ripped and pillaged the country over the past twenty years. All four Ukrainian presidents, she suggested, should stand at the podium greeting the parade and displaying on their chests the list of who ceded and wasted what over the past two decades – “either nuclear weapons, or the Black Sea Fleet, or national industry and strategic objects, or the Orange revolution, or the entire country” [хто що здав за ці 20 років. Хто флот і ядерну зброю, хто промисловість і стратегічні об’єкти, хто помаранчеву революцію, хто взагалі Україну] [http://www.day.kiev.ua/214296].

The reputable Dzerkalo tyzhnia weekly (“Mirror Weekly”) commemorated the jubilee with a number of articles headed by graphic titles such as “Twenty Years of Solitude,” “Twenty Years of Discontent,” or merely featuring Ukraine’s place in various international rankings: no. 1 in the world for alcoholism among children, no.1 in Europe for the spread of HIV, no. 2 among IMF’s biggest borrowers ($12.66 billion debt), no. 5 for the biggest suppliers of emigrants (6.6 million people have left the country since independence – nearly 15% of today’s population), no. 5 in the world for alcohol consumption, no. 7 for computer piracy, no. 10 for the number of prisoners (334 per 100,000 people), no. 69 (among 169 surveyed) on the human development index, no. 73 (out of 192) for quality of life, no. 110 (out of 177) for prosperity, no. 131 for freedom of speech, no. 134 (out of 180) for corruption, no. 164 (out of 179) for economic freedom, no. 181 (out of 183) for the simplicity of taxpaying procedures (an average Ukrainian entrepreneur, according to the World Bank data, spends 657 hours annually filing tax-related documents and settling business issues) [http://dt.ua/articles/86389].

Either deliberately or by coincidence, the same issue of Dzerkalo tyzhnia features an overoptimistic article by the Ukrainian president Viktor Yanukovych himself. Here, he trumpets Ukraine’s “European choice” and commitment to “European values,” boasts about large-scale reforms and anti-corruption measures, and professes, on behalf of the government, the highest respect for the national constitution and rule of law [http://dt.ua/articles/86421]. As a speech writer’s product it seems pretty good but the reality resonates differently. All the “reforms” to date have noticeably improved the well-being of the president’s friendly oligarchs and brought misery to the life of the common people; all the “anti-corruption measures” so far, have resulted in the persecution of opposition figures under dubious charges and in a higher than ever corruption and lawlessness within the president’s inner circle; all the “respect for the constitution” is demonstrated by multiple violations of its clauses in the most blatant way since Yanukovych’s accession to power. The hard fact is that under his leadership Ukraine has dropped in numerous international rankings – including in political and economic freedoms, administrative efficacy, and quality of life.

Remarkably, it is foreigners rather than Ukrainian citizens who express some optimism about Ukraine’s development in their comments. Steven Pifer, a former American ambassador to Ukraine, believes that the emergence of a national identity spanning all of Ukraine is among the country’s key achievements of the last two decades. “In eastern Ukraine it may not be quite as thick as it is in the west, but I think most Ukrainians now see Ukraine as an independent state and whatever issues they are going to face, they want to resolve those issues as a Ukrainian state” [http://www.rferl.org/content/russia_soviet_union_august_1991_coup_yeltsin_gorbachev/24301212.html].

Matthew Rojansky, director of the Carnegie Endowment’s Russia and Eurasia Program, agrees, according to the same source, that the most significant change in the post-Soviet republics was has been “the creation and re-establishment and re-creation of new, independent identities,”, “which includes seeking to differentiate themselves from Russia even when people had been very heavily Russified and economies had been heavily Sovietized.” Ukraine, he contends, stands prominently among those countries in which a new generation of leaders has emerged that “has confidence in democracy and is willing to source its power from their electorates rather than from chummy relations with Moscow.” In this regard, he considers the wave of colored revolutions in Georgia, Ukraine, and Kyrgyzstan as an important development in the right direction, “a sign of the generational weakening of the sociopolitical legacies of the Soviet experience.”

And Alexander Motyl, in his recent blog on Ukraine’s Independence Day, envisions, rather unexpectedly, the country’s bright future despite the fact that the Ukrainian rulers, in his own terms, are just a bunch of greedy and incompetent thugs who captured the state (the view actually is not so unique and extravagant since Ukrainian publicists often describe Yanukovych’s clan as a “Donetsk mafia” meaning not necessarily a deliberate insult but, rather, the pedigree and the way in which the inner circle of the Party of Regions is organized). Motyl believes, nonetheheless, that these people are doomed to Europeanize/modernize Ukraine despite themselves, i.e., notwithstanding their entire set of beliefs, habits, and basic instincts. They simply have no choice: “Unfortunately for Ukraine’s current mafia, their thuggish godfather to the north is stronger than they are… Vladimir Putin’s Russia knows no bounds on its appetites toward Ukraine… If you give them an inch, they’ll take a mile. If you give them a mile, they’ll take ten. Jeeze, what’s a poor Ukrainian capo to do? The answer is obvious: go straight. Get rid of those black shirts and wide lapels, stop smoking cigars and packing heat, cut your fingernails, brush your hair, buy yourself a nice house and mow the lawn, start a respectable business, and join a country club, preferably in Brussels” [http://www.worldaffairsjournal.org/new/blogs/motyl/Ukraine_Turns_20].

“Oh, and one more thing,” Motyl suggests acerbically, “Declare Putin and his sidekick Dmitri Medvedev Heroes of Ukraine. They deserve it. Their thuggishness might just make Ukraine fully independent.”

Whatever the reason for optimism and/or pessimism about Ukraine, the main difference between the two approaches stems not so much from different views of Ukraine and its internal developments, but rather from different views of the context within which the country is placed. The “pessimists” consider Ukraine as a part of Europe and gauge it against the experience of much more advanced western neighbors. The “optimists” still perceive it primarily as a “Eurasian” state, which is definitely more advanced in many regards than virtually all its post-Soviet brethren. It is still like a glass of water that can be considered either half-full or half-empty, depending on the predisposition of the speaker.

The “pessimists” seem to be right about Ukraine’s present, whereas the “optimists” may be right about its future. To be sure, the incumbent regime is no friend of Europe, democracy, freedom of speech, and fair economic competition. Russian-style authoritarianism or Belarus-style dictatorship would have been their most favored system of government. Yet they lack resources to afford the former and are too vulnerable to inevitable international sanctions to move toward the latter. And to make bad things worse, they lead a restive society that may require even more resources than Russia has to bribe it, and more coercion than Lukashenko applies to ensure it is pacified.

So, the paradoxical shift of the staunch authoritarians toward Europe and therefore toward European practices envisioned by Motyl cannot be excluded. Yanukovych’s speech signals this possibility not only by multiple references to “our European choice” but also by a carefully worded resentment vis-à-vis Moscow: “The past years have proved undeniably that good neighborly relations with Russia are possible only if they are based on an equal balance of national interests and the mutual respect of both sides for each other. The state and its leadership will do everything they can to construct such a balance.” Diplomatic niceties aside, the statement means that Ukraine cannot perform a friendship dance alone, and that Russia should show equal respect for Ukraine and its national interests.

Of course, there is a long and sometimes insurmountable distance between words and deeds, intentions and practices. Even if the Ukrainian “mafia,” under domestic and international pressure, decides ultimately to follow Motyl’s advice – to get rid of bad habits and start a respectable business, – it might be a very difficult task, as the last part of “Godfather” illustrates graphically. Third-party enforcement (or at least arbitration) in such a transition might be the key factor. But it is not very clear whether the European Union is ready and able to play the sort of role in Ukraine that it played successfully in the Balkans.

If such a shift happens – as seemed likely after the Orange revolution – we may call the Ukrainian glass half-full. So far, alas, it remains half-empty.


Interventions: Challenging the Myths of Twentieth-Century Ukrainian History

August 7, 2011

John-Paul Himka
Department of History and Classics
Winner of the J. Gordin Kaplan Award for Research Excellence University of Alberta
Text based on an address delivered at the 2nd annual Celebration of Research and Creative Work Faculty of Arts, 28 March 2011

Recently I was asked by the historian Alexei Miller to reflect on my experiences in the capacity of public intellectual as well as academic, namely as a challenger of nationalist historical myths. He was putting together a volume on Geschichtspolitik and thought that a first-hand account of resistance to dominant national narratives would be an interesting piece to include in the book. I have abridged this account and thought it would make a good talk for an occasion like this, for a talk about research and its implications.

What I have been challenging is Ukrainian myths about traumatic aspects of the twentieth-century.1 By myths here I mean unexamined components of an ideologized version of history, articles of faith more than of reason. In this talk, I will first try to explain my motivations for challenging such myths, even though I realized it would cause considerable discomfort both to my targeted audience and to me personally. Then I will describe and evaluate the strategies I chose for my interventions. But before proceeding to the body of this talk, it is necessary to explain what myths I have been challenging.

One of the areas of contention is the interpretation of the great famine that racked Ukraine in 1932-33. In the mythicized version, Stalin unleashed the famine deliberately in order to kill Ukrainians in mass and thus to prevent them from achieving their aspirations to establish a national state. I, however, point out that the precondition for the famine was the reckless collectivization drive, which almost destroyed Soviet agriculture as a whole. I do not deny that the famine in Soviet Ukraine and in the Ukrainian-inhabited Kuban region of Soviet Russia was more intense than elsewhere in the Soviet Union, that its intensity resulted from particularly severe measures applied to Ukraine and the Kuban, and that the severity was connected with a major offensive against perceived nationalism in the communist party of Ukraine. My somewhat more nuanced view is a problem for the mythologists, who want the world to recognize that the famine, or as they call it–the Holodomor–was a genocide as defined by the United Nations in 1948. This campaign became Ukrainian state policy during the presidency of Viktor Yushchenko (2005-10). Although I do think that what happened in Ukraine in 1932-33 could fit under the capacious UN definition (“…deliberately inflicting on the group conditions of life, calculated to bring about its physical destruction in whole or in part…”), I oppose the campaign for recognition as genocide for a number of reasons. The genocide argument is used to buttress another campaign, to glorify the anticommunist resistance of the Ukrainian nationalists during World War II. I do not think that Ukrainians who embrace the heritage of the wartime nationalists should be calling on the world to empathize with the victims of the famine if they are not able to empathize with the victims of the nationalists. I think, further, that there is something wrong with a campaign that finds its greatest resonance in the area of Ukraine where there was no famine, and in the overseas diaspora deriving from that region. I have problems with all the anger at Russians and Jews that gets wrapped up in the genocide campaign. And I also have problems with the UN definition itself, which excludes victims of social and political mass murder and has become a category for political manipulation.

I also have been critical of the use of inflated numbers for the tally of the famine’s victims: president Yushchenko and his Ukrainian Institute of National Memory insisted it was ten million, while overseas diaspora organizations have been using seven to ten million. None of these figures can be justified by demographic data, which indicates an excess mortality in Ukraine in 1932-33 somewhere between 2.6 and 3.9 million. What galls the mythologists is that these numbers are less than the number usually used for the Jewish Holocaust, and having a number bigger than six million is important to them. I have also been active in exposing how this kind of competing victimology is used to justify the violence of radical Ukrainian nationalists during World War II.

My interest in the famine flowed out of my work on another moment in Ukraine’s traumatic history, the second large theme of my interventions and challenges–the Holocaust. The fundamental point of contention between the adherents of the national myth and me is whether or not the Organization of Ukrainian Nationalists (hereafter OUN) and its armed force, the Ukrainian Insurgent Army (hereafter UPA, from its Ukrainian initials) participated in the Holocaust. They deny this entirely. My research indicates, however, as does the research of scholars around the world, that the participation was significant.

In the summer of 1941, as the Germans invaded Ukraine, militias connected with OUN organized several massive pogroms against the Jewish population, notably in Lviv. The militias arrested and beat Jews, abused Jewish women, and rounded up Jews for the Germans to shoot. In many other localities in the regions of Galicia and Volhynia, the militias did not organize pogrom-like public spectacles, but arrested Jews and either shot them themselves or handed them over to the German or Romanian authorities to shoot. Altogether in this phase, OUN was implicated in the murder of tens of thousands of Jews.

After this wave of mass violence subsided, and the Germans began a more systematic liquidation of the Jewish population, OUN sent many of its members into police units in German service. OUN did not do this in order to kill Jews–it had other reasons, but these Ukrainian police served as important implements of the Final Solution in Ukraine and Belarus, particularly in rounding up Jews for execution. In this way OUN members became involved in hundreds of thousands of murders.

Then in spring 1943 thousands of these Ukrainian policemen deserted their posts with their weapons and formed the nucleus of the OUN-led UPA. The preparation of such an action was among the reasons why OUN had sent its men into the police in the first place. UPA launched a massive ethnic cleansing action against the Polish population of Volhynia and later Galicia, in which perhaps a hundred thousand Poles perished. (The slaughter of the Poles is well documented, but the national mythologizers downplay it.) While killing Poles, the soldiers of UPA also routinely killed any Jewish survivors that they encountered. As the Red Army approached in the winter of 1944, UPA and separate OUN security forces lured Jews out of hiding in the woods, then enrolled them in labor camps, and later killed them systematically. Overall, UPA killed at least thousands of Jews. The myth maintains that Jews served as doctors in UPA, and therefore UPA rescued, rather than killed, Jews. Defenders of the mythical history often circulate fabricated memoirs of a non-existent Jewish woman who served in UPA.

In speaking of the views I oppose as mythologies, I do not always mean to make truth claims. Whether OUN organized pogroms and how many people perished in the famine are indeed about questions of fact, and my contentions can be verified without much difficulty; but whether the famine constituted a genocide is a matter of interpretation; and whether one should campaign for its recognition as a genocide is rather a political and moral issue.

Motivations of Intervention

My decision to intervene on these issues is partly just a result of my training as a historian. Once I took up the project of clarifying the history of the Holocaust in Ukraine, I submitted the topic the usual disciplinary procedures, which include researching in primary sources and rethinking in relation to existing research. The tremendous gulf between what the sources told me and the common wisdom in Ukrainian discourse was something I had never encountered before in my professional career. I was also struck by the complete absence of literature on the topic written from within the field of Ukrainian studies. As I worked, I more and more came to the conclusion that here was a moment where a revisionist treatment was not only appropriate, but obligatory.

Throughout this project I have kept returning in my mind to the same basic idea: that the truth is a value in and of itself. No matter what we would like to believe about something, we are obliged to uncover the truth. It has never ceased to astound me in the course of all the debates in which I have engaged, that so few people seem to be interested in that. My arguments have repeatedly been rejected out of hand, without a serious and honest confrontation with them or with the sources on which they rest. My opponents in debate seem to be interested in defending a certain position, not in figuring out what happened, as historians are supposed to do. When I originally took up this project, I had no idea about the OUN militias in summer 1941 and I doubted that UPA killed Jews or thought that it might have done so only exceptionally. I made my discoveries with very mixed feelings. I did not like what I was finding out, but I also experienced that satisfaction that a professional historian obtains when solving a difficult problem.

Heightening my interest in the topic, because of the intellectual challenge it posed, was the extreme polarization of memory between Ukrainians and Jews. How could their views on what happened be so strikingly different? Protestations of total innocence on one side were contradicted by deep resentments for complicity on the other. Indeed, some Jews felt that the Ukrainians were simply “the worst.” It was a puzzle for me, one that I feel I eventually worked out in its essentials; it whetted my curiosity and drove my quest to find out what actually happened and thus make sense of the disparities.

My research and thinking also awakened a moral sense about this topic, something that was not so prominent in my earlier studies. I wrote a piece in 2003 that raised the issue of how Ukrainian-diaspora discourse could be so complacent and reticent about UPA’s murder of the Poles and the Ukrainian police’s well documented tole in the Holocaust. To me, this nonchalance seemed wrong. Moreover, I was disturbed by what was going on both in Ukraine and in the diaspora: on the one hand, OUN and UPA were being glorified, and on the other, the history of Ukrainian Jews in the Holocaust was being suppressed. This too, seemed to me very wrong. My position is that the horrible crimes committed by Ukrainian nationalists against Jews and Poles during the Second World War cannot be undone, and all that later Ukrainians can do about them is to admit that they happened and to regret them. It is not enough, but it is all that is possible. Certainly they cannot glorify the people who committed them.

Another major spur to my activities as a gadfly was the Geschichtspolitik of President Yushchenko in Ukraine. In June 2007 he officially celebrated the centenary of the birth of UPA commander Roman Shukhevych. Shortly thereafter the Ukrainian post office issued a stamp in Shukhevych’s honor that bore the emblems of both OUN and UPA. Not much later Yushchenko named Shukhevych a posthumous Hero of Ukraine. Shortly before leaving office in early 2010, Yushchenko also made a posthumous Hero of Stepan Bandera, the leader of the wing of OUN that was the chief Ukrainian perpetrator during the Holocaust and later ethnic cleansing actions. A few days later, Yushchenko called on municipalities to name schools, streets, and squares after the heroes of OUN- UPA. Almost immediately afterwards, the Ukrainian Canadian Congress appealed to the government of Canada to recognize veterans of OUN-UPA as members of the resistance during World War II and to pay them veteran’s benefits. While Yushchenko pursued his campaign to have every country recognize the famine of 1932-33 as a genocide, he simultaneously suppressed the history of the other genocide, the Holocaust. He used the Security Service of Ukraine to pursue his historico-political agenda. It produced two deceptions, one that whitewashed the history of OUN vis-à-vis the pogroms and another that blamed Jews disproportionately for the famine. Someone had to say something about this, and I felt well positioned to do so.

The last motivation that I will mention is also connected to Yushchenko and his historical policies. Ukraine has a divided memory about both the famine and OUN-UPA. Simply put, the West of Ukraine puts OUN-UPA at the center of its heroic narrative of World War II, while the East and South put the Red Army at the center. Western Ukraine is also more convinced that the famine was a genocide than the rest of Ukraine, even though Western Ukraine was not part of the Soviet Union when the famine occurred. Ukraine’s first president deftly avoided alienating either regional perspective, while his successor sometimes played one identity project off against the other. President Yushchenko, however, embraced entirely what one of my colleagues nicknamed the “OUN-UPA-Holodomor” identity and pushed it vigorously on the Ukrainian public. He was massively defeated in the 2010 presidential election and replaced by a man who pushes the opposite perspective. In my view, this historical-identity war has been very harmful to Ukraine. Politicians find it all too attractive to mobilize the population with historical symbols, but they thereby drive the wedge in deeper between regions and between perspectives. It is always easier to deliver symbols than decent health care or affordable homes. I consider the deconstruction of the historical mythologies of both camps to be the prescribed medicine for Ukrainian political discourse.

Strategies

I have made my interventions in forms appropriate to both a scholar (a monograph in progress, articles in scholarly journals, book reviews, conference presentations) and to
a public intellectual (opinion pieces, letters to the editor, open letters). Here I will assess some of the pluses and minuses of these genres. There are several problems with the scholarly forms. One is that they are very slow. It takes a long time to research and write a monograph, at least in my case. I started serious research on my first book in 1974, and my last book was published in 2009, so it took me thirty-five years to write four monographs. The pace of scholarly publication, not just production, is slow. A major article on the Holocaust I wrote in 2004 has still not been published, although it has been accepted for a long time. The other major problem with scholarly forms is that they have a small readership. It is hard to make a dent on public opinion when one writes in the antiquated form of a twenty-five page, footnoted article in a professional journal that is purchased primarily by major research libraries. The third problem is that scholarly forms take effort and time to read. Today’s reader prefers shorter, simpler pieces; op-eds are the perfect size and at the perfect level for addressing the public.

I discovered the power of short pieces delivered via internet in 2004, on the eve of the Orange Revolution in Ukraine. I reacted to what I thought was hysterical and sometimes xenophobic rhetoric on the part of the partisans of Yushchenko, then a presidential candidate, and sent around to various lists and colleagues an eleven-hundred- word text dissenting from the prevailing view. Soon everyone I knew had read it, and many more whom I did not know, in Ukraine as well as in the overseas diaspora. An open letter distributed by email and the internet proved to be an extraordinarily effective way to communicate with a large audience in a timely fashion. No normal scholarly venue could have accomplished what a short text on the internet could. After this lesson, I was able to intervene in a similar fashion when a diaspora filmmaker was making an offensive movie about the Holodomor, when Yushchenko’s Security Service was deceiving the public about OUN and the pogroms, and particularly when Yushchenko and the Ukrainian Canadian congress were making OUN and UPA into heroes.

But there are disadvantages to short, instant response. One is that instant is sloppier. I carried on a polemic with a former president of the Ukrainian World Congress, and each of our rapid responses contained errors. I contrast such quick repartee, with its recurring errors, to the slow interchange in scholarship. That article that I have not published since 2004 has been rewritten three or four times, and a number of sets of careful eyes have gone over it. My last monograph took three years to go from my finished draft to publication. In that time, I had to respond twice to the comments of careful reviewers. I did not like it that the appearance of my book was being delayed, but I must admit that it is a much better book as a result.

Short, like instant, is also problematic, because history is complex and a short text often has to oversimplify. Short texts are best at throwing monkey wrenches into the spokes of larger narratives or myths, but they are not good for articulating a sustained argument of any complexity. Something always has to give. Another problem with short and instant pieces is that they sharpen the debate too much, which can constitute an impediment to thoughtful work.

One could argue that scholars should stick to scholarship and leave the formation of public opinion to journalists. But I disagree with that in principle. Scholarship is not a luxury–it has its responsibilities. In my case, not intervening would have left the mythmaking unchallenged; and then the nationalist viewpoint, already hegemonic in the overseas diaspora, in the Ukrainian studies community, and in Western Ukraine, would
have become even stronger and even harder to dislodge. No evidence, I am sure, will convince the nationalist true believers. But it seems to me absolutely necessary to express a different viewpoint, to create a space for and possibility of intellectual dissent; hence the recourse to the short pieces on the internet.

Although one of my courses became the subject of rather intense controversy, I do not consider the classroom to be the place for promoting one idea or another. I have given a number of undergraduate and graduate seminars on the Holocaust and one on the famine of 1932-33. I use these occasions to explore things for myself through collective reading and discussion. When an issue is controversial, I have tried to find the best presentations of the varying points of view. Students should be exposed to different perspectives and then sort out the issues for themselves. Our university motto is Quaecumque vera–whatsoever things are true. I subscribe fully. The university classroom is for exploration and intellectual growth, not for indoctrination.

In the course of these interventions, a few questions emerged concerning what might be called my location. At the beginning, I felt strongly that I should not try to intervene in Ukraine itself, that it was not my place; I thought I should restrict my commentary to the diaspora, since that is where I am located. I realized later, however, that this stance was impossible to maintain. Much of what I wrote in the diaspora was read in Ukraine, and things I published in Ukraine and even in Ukrainian were being read in the diaspora. I had failed to understand that we live in a highly transnational era. Another, related location question was my self-identification as a Ukrainian. Identity location makes some difference in the kind of demythologizing in which I have been engaging: challenging core myths from the inside. By example I demonstrate that one need not identify with OUN-UPA to identify, and be identified, as a Ukrainian. And I actually do have a Ukrainian identity. I have worked on Ukrainian history for over forty years; before that I studied to become a Ukrainian priest; my wife and I raised our children to speak Ukrainian; I attend a Ukrainian Orthodox church; I visit Ukraine and have close friends and relatives there; I like to eat Ukrainian food and drink horilka; I like to listen to various kinds of Ukrainian music, along with other music; I pursue a deep interest in Ukrainian sacral art. How am I not Ukrainian? (And I can hear the chorus of my critics: “Because you are a traitor!”

Conclusions

The debates are by no means over. At the moment, I feel that the biggest accomplishment has been to have forced debate on important issues. It is no longer quite as comfortable to hold on to the illusions as it had been.

It has not been easy to make these interventions, and I do not recommend that others seek out such opportunities. It is very easy to make mistakes. Still, intellectuals every once in a while are forced into an ich-kann-nicht-anders position. I hope that this report on my experiences will resonate with others in this situation and be taken as an expression of solidarity. And I hope that those with less encumbered intellectual lives have at least found this account to be of interest.

[Footnotes have been omitted from the original--DRM]


Beyond sticks and carrots: Western policy towards Ukraine

August 6, 2011

Iryna Solonenko and Peter Rutland

The publication of a letter from a dozen academics titled “EU should get tough now with Yanukovych [11]” in the Kyiv Post on June 16 has triggered a lively debate [12] about Western policy towards Ukraine. Taras Kuzio, Lucan Way, Serhiy Kudelia and half-a-dozen colleagues argue that the West must apply pressure on President Viktor Yanukovych to halt the erosion of democratic freedoms that has taken place since he took office in February 2010. They propose a visa-ban on top Ukrainian officials, and a halt to the introduction of a free-trade area with the European Union, unless what they see as the politically inspired trials of former officials such as ex-premier Yulia Tymoshenko are dropped. 

In response, Alexander Motyl [13] and Adrian Karatnycky [14] have argued that keeping Ukraine out of Moscow’s orbit should be the main priority shaping Western policy. They argue that the application of sanctions would merely help Yanukovych consolidate his authoritarian regime and push him even further in the direction of close ties with Russia.

“It is not unusual for Western foreign policy to be pulled between promoting democratic values on one hand and defending the West’s geopolitical interests on the other. However, the debate over Ukraine has an artificial quality in that it contributes to the over-personalization of politics in this country of 46 million people, reducing it to a personal battle between Viktor Yanukovych and Yulia Tymoshenko.”

Even though most of the initial letters’ signatories are based in North America, it is interesting that they focus their call for sanctions on the European Union and not the US government. This reflects the perception that nowadays Brussels, not Washington, holds the key to Ukraine.

The context for this debate is that by the end of this year the EU and Ukraine are supposed to conclude talks on an Association Agreement [15] (AA) that have been under way for four years. The advocates of sanctions are concerned that such an agreement would give the Yanukovych government a free hand to manipulate the parliamentary elections that will take place in fall 2012.

It is not unusual for Western foreign policy to be pulled in two directions, between promoting democratic values on one hand and defending the West’s geopolitical interests on the other. However, the debate over Ukraine has an artificial quality in that it contributes to the over-personalization of politics in this country of 46 million people, reducing it to a personal battle between Viktor Yanukovych and Yulia Tymoshenko. This is not to deny that a gross miscarriage of justice does seem to be under way in the Tymoshenko trial [16] – just that this factor alone should not bring Western policy towards Ukraine to a grinding halt.

The international record on sanctions of all types has been mixed, at best: on average, they work about half the time. One relevant success story would be the sanctions imposed on Slovakia before 1998. They did succeed in triggering a social mobilization that ousted Prime Minister Vladimir Meciar and set Slovakia on the path to EU entry.

At this juncture, however, the chances that sanctions on Ukraine’s top leaders would cause a radical shift in their political style, or mobilize society against them, are slim. The sanctions advocates don’t really explain why they think these sanctions would work. Conditionality only works if the benefits of complying with external requirements outweigh the costs of reforms. Ukraine’s ruling elites (like politicians everywhere) think short-term. In the short-term perspective the incumbent elites might consider they have more to lose from having free elections than they will gain from the long-term benefits the AA offers. Indeed, it would take up to 10-15 years for the deep and comprehensive free trade area between the EU and Ukraine, a core component of the AA, to become a reality, while in the short run the costs of adaptation will need to be paid. Added to which, Moscow can also exercise leverage, and try to neutralize Western initiatives.

Rather than play the carrots and sticks game, trying to influence leaders’ decisions, it is better to wager on society. This means seeing through to their conclusion the negotiations. The sanctions debate overlooks the potential transformative effect the AA will have on Ukraine. Signing the agreement would mean that Ukraine enters serious commitments to reform itself. Since the major barriers to EU-Ukraine bilateral trade are non-tariff, access to the EU market will require Ukraine to adopt up to 1,500 pages of acquis communautaire regulations. The AA will be a legally binding arrangement, meaning that the EU and European companies can bring Ukraine to the European Court of Justice if provisions of the agreement have been violated, and vice versa.

This type of engagement will encourage domestic reform-minded actors to push for change from inside. It will unlock the potential of numerous groups and individuals that are interested in reform, but have limited tools to push for them under present conditions. These actors include both civil society groups and businesses, who will be able to use the AA procedures to push for a more competitive environment and above all a fairer judicial process in Ukraine.

It is true that the EU runs the risk of being seen as compromising the values on which it wants the partnership with neighboring countries be based. When announcing the successful conclusion of AA talks this December, the EU should make it clear that it expects democratic norms to be upheld in Ukraine. But refusing to sign the agreement altogether would likely bring no policy change at all.

Failure to conclude the AA would not only be a blow to Ukraine, but also a nail in the coffin of the EU’s already embattled Eastern Neighborhood Policy – which is built on the premise that there are common values uniting the EU and its eastern neighbors.

Smart engagement, including increased flows of trade, mobility of people and growing interdependence, which the AA offers, is the way to go. Post-war Europe started with functional and technocratic integration, with no sign of political union in sight. What the EU is today, even with the current crisis, is still impressive. This tried and proven path of long-term integration is the best hope for success with Ukraine and other Eastern neighbors. Engagement will produce a critical mass of institutions, practices and individuals that will inevitably challenge the current regimes in the longer run. There is no short-term quick fix to the deficiencies in Ukraine’s political culture.

Links:
[1] http://www.opendemocracy.net/themes/russia-theme
[2] http://www.opendemocracy.net/russia
[3] http://www.opendemocracy.net/topics/international-politics
[4] http://www.opendemocracy.net/topics/democracy-and-government
[5] http://www.opendemocracy.net/countries/ukraine
[6] http://www.opendemocracy.net/russia/topics/politics
[7] http://www.opendemocracy.net/russia/topics/human-rights
[8] http://www.opendemocracy.net/russia/topics/foreign
[9] http://www.opendemocracy.net/author/iryna-solonenko
[10] http://www.opendemocracy.net/author/peter-rutland
[11] http://www.kyivpost.com/news/opinion/op_ed/detail/106920/
[12] http://www.opendemocracy.net/od-russia/mykola-riabchuk/ukraine-blackmail-and-bluff
[13] http://www.worldaffairsjournal.org/new/blogs/motyl/Integrating_an_Authoritarian_Ukraine_into_Democratic_Europe
[14] http://www.kyivpost.com/news/opinion/op_ed/detail/108653/print/
[15] http://www.kyivpost.com/news/nation/detail/109355/
[16] http://www.opendemocracy.net/od-russia/natalia-sedletska/ukrainian-politics-on-trial
[17] http://www.opendemocracy.net/od-russia/iryna-solomko/yuri-lutsenko-views-from-prison-cell
[18] http://www.opendemocracy.net/od-russia/aleksey-matsuka/dispatch-from-donetsk
[19] http://www.opendemocracy.net/od-russia/olena-tregub/ukraine-europe-its-brightest-hope
[20] http://www.opendemocracy.net/od-russia/david-marples/ukraine-crisis-of-self-identity
[21] http://www.opendemocracy.net/od-russia/mykola-riabchuk/viktor-yanukovych-pandora%E2%80%99s-box-and-moscow-orchestra
[22] http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc-nd/3.0/
[23] http://www.opendemocracy.net/about/syndication

This article was originally published by our partner organization, Open Democracy, 4 August 2011 and is reissued here with permission.


Yanukovych’s Gleichschaltung and Ukraine’s Future

July 7, 2010

By Mykola Riabchuk

It seems neither Ukrainian society nor international observers have come yet to terms with what really happened in the country within the last half a year. Back in February, when Viktor Yanukovych, a notorious villain of the 2004 Orange revolution, scored a narrow victory (49 vs 46 per cent) against the incumbent prime-minister Yulia Tymoshenko, no one expected much good from his comeback but very few people considered it as a national catastrophe either.

The predominant experts’ view, including my own, was that the new president would probably pursue a Kuchma-style “multi-vector” policy internationally and a “Kuchma-lite” policy domestically. It seemed to be “lite” not because Yanukovych was any more committed to the rule of law, or had weaker authoritarian inclinations, but because presidential authority became much weaker these days than it used to be under Kuchma – due to the constitutional amendments made in 2004. So, for the time being, the Byzantine intrigues at the top were likely to continue and a dysfunctional Ukrainian democracy was likely to persist.

What virtually no one could have predicted back in February, was the blatant violation of the Constitution, the de-facto parliamentary coup d’etat completed by the new president and his Party of Regions, with the tacit acceptance – ‘benign neglect’ – of Western governments. Alexander Motyl has gone so far as to compare Yanukovych’s “coordinating” government with the Nazi’s 1933 Gleichschaltung. Certainly he did not mean there are any ideological similarities between both leaders and parties or the subsequent developments in Germany and Ukraine. He simply stressed the Bolshevik ‘revolutionary expedience’ that facilitated, in both cases, a swift and bold takeover of state institutions in a very arbitrary, semi-legal, or absolutely illegal way.

The main miscalculation of both Ukrainian and international observers came from the fact that Yanukovych’s Party of Regions, even with two minor satellites – the Communists and the Lytvyn Block – did not have a majority in the parliament to create a legitimate government. The Ukrainian constitution stipulates that the government is created not by a simple majority of MPs but also by factions that have a sufficient number of MPs on their list to create such a majority. Such a restriction might look strange from the western point of view but in Ukraine it was enshrined deliberately in the Constitution in 2004 to restrict parliamentary corruption – the retail purchasing of single MPs from other factions. Hence, the only legitimate way to create a new government, for the Party of Regions, was to form a coalition either with Yushchenko’s ‘Our Ukraine’ or Tymoshenko’s Bloc. Or, if those negotiations failed, he could announce new parliamentary elections. Yanukovych and his Party of Regions did not bother themselves with undoing the knot but simply cut it.

This resulted not only in the rapid creation of the new government endorsed by a fully obedient parliamentary majority. This was also a highly important symbolic message – both to Yanukovych’s supporters who typically despise democracy with all its boring procedures and who appreciate a ‘strong hand’, and to the opposition, which was in disarray through infighting, demoralized by the electoral defeat, and completely shocked by the unconstitutional move of the ‘Regionals’. Yet, the most important message was sent to the population at large: “We are back, with all our practices tried and tested in Donbas; we are serious guys, no jokes, it’s just the beginning”.

Within a few months, Yanukovych and his team have effectively subordinated all branches of the government, marginalized opposition, and consolidated their authoritarian rule largely based on the mechanisms of a ‘blackmail state’. In this regard, Yanukovych’s regime is not much different from that of Leonid Kuchma. What makes him different, however, is his much stronger and unabashed pro-Moscow orientation (if not subordination) in external policies, and much more divisive (if not overtly Ukrainophobic) stance in domestic issues. Leonid Kuchma pursued the so-called ‘multi-vector’ international politics, flirting with both Moscow and the West, and benefitting personally from such a shuttling. Internal politics was also manipulative: Kuchma assumed a peace-keeping role between east and west, left and right, and Russophones and Ukrainophones, sending mixed messages to different sides and reacting opportunistically to different challenges. This was the essence of post-Soviet ‘pragmatism’ that satisfied both the president and the ruling oligarchy in their need for stability and personal enrichment.

So far, Yanukovych exposes a striking absence of such ‘pragmatism’. He takes a lot of steps that can be deemed irrational in every way. One can list a huge number of dubious deals with Russia that are rightly perceived as one-sided, non-reciprocal concessions. There are also a lot of symbolical gestures, personnel nominations, divisive policies, and provocative decisions that bring no benefits to the nation or to the ruling oligarchy and the president himself. This makes many Ukrainian observers wonder whether Yanukovych is really a mediocre puppet of Ukrainian oligarchs, as many used to believe, or a much more dangerous puppet of the Russian security services and their powerful lobby in today’s Ukrainian government.

Whatever the real role of Russian intelligence in Ukraine might be, Yanukovych’s team is certainly not monolithic. It consists of various groups which can be roughly subsumed under two headings – pro-Moscow hawks connected to the notorious RosUkrEnergo and probably FSB/SVR; and ‘pragmatic’ doves pursuing a Kuchma-style multi-vector, quasi-centrist policy. So far, the hawks’ policies seem to prevail. They strongly alienate not only committed Ukrainophones who feel their identity under pressure, but also civil society at large, which finds civic freedoms under serious threat. The small and medium business sector is also set against the new economic and, in particular, fiscal policies of Yanukovych’s government. And some signs of anxiety emerge even among Ukrainian oligarchs who are increasingly dissatisfied with Russian dominance in all areas. The last straw might be the ultimate disappointment of Yanukovych’s rank-and-file pro-Russian electorate with economic and anti-corruption promises that are very unlikely to be delivered.

A regime change looks rather inevitable – if the next, 2012 parliamentary elections are free and fair, as they have been in Ukraine in the past five years. But here the main question dwells: how far will the incumbent government proceed in curbing media freedom, suppressing the opposition, subjugating the courts, bribing and intimidating civil servants, and using violence against protesters? If allegations of Russian involvement hold true, the puppet government may proceed beyond any limits. Ramzan Kadyrov of Chechnya might be a graphic example. Western benign neglect in this case would be not only self-deceiving but also self-defeating.

Mykola Riabchuk is a Ukrainian cultural and political analyst. His last collection of essays “Mrs Simpson’s Favorite Gun” (in Ukrainian) was published in 2009 in Kyiv.


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